One simulated track of 1,000,005 cards, played with OddsOfBlackjack’s decisions. We retrospectively applied the MOV fixed-unit ramp to this simulated track. Starting from a $1,000 bankroll, it finished +$7,570 without any additional deposit — a realised average of +$5.59 per 100 wagered rounds.
Retrospective simulation analysis. The rule was selected using this dataset; results are not a forecast or guarantee. The current app scales stakes with confirmed balance and was not tested by this fixed-stake experiment.
The MOV ramp sizes the initial bet in units. Playing decisions, cards and participation are exactly those of the simulated track; doubles and splits add the same initial bet again. Each threshold is inclusive. The unit used in this experiment is described in the Methodology.
R is the realised net result: everything won minus everything staked, before any deposit. C is what the EV model attributes to the bets: the sum of stake × pre-bet EV. The difference between R and C is the realised outcome minus the model contribution; it is not attributed entirely to variance.
The track ended +$7,570, a realised average of +$5.59 per 100 wagered rounds; this average is realised, not an expected rate. The EV model contribution of the bets is +$204.25. The difference between R and C is the realised outcome minus the model contribution; it is not attributed entirely to variance.
The track was produced by the OOB simulator: an 8-deck shoe dealt to the cut card, every playing decision taken by the engine from the exact remaining composition, and the pre-bet EV recorded before each round. All accounting was reconciled round by round.
Unit in this experiment. The unit was a constant $10, so the MOV levels were fixed stakes of $10 (1×), $20 (2×) and $130 (13×) throughout the track, independent of the balance. The current app sizes its unit from the balance you confirm; that dynamic unit was not used here.
The MOV ramp was applied to that same track. Because settlement is linear in the initial stake, each round’s stakes and payouts were rescaled exactly to the MOV stake; cards, decisions and participation are unchanged. Rounds below −1.0% EV are observed without a bet.
The ramp was chosen after examining this dataset, from a small family of fixed-stake rules. The result is therefore in-sample: it describes this track, not future play.
| Level (experiment stake) | Pre-bet EV | Rounds | R (USD) | C (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1× unit ($10) | −1.0% to below +0.1% | 114,188 | -2,715.00 | -6,336.53 |
| 2× unit ($20) | +0.1% to below +1.1% | 18,684 | +2,680.00 | +1,697.22 |
| 13× unit ($130) | +1.1% and above | 2,539 | +7,605.00 | +4,843.56 |
| Total | 135,411 | +7,570.00 | +204.25 |
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Cards / rounds / wagered rounds | 1,000,005 / 187,406 / 135,411 |
| Initial stakes | $1,845,630 |
| C as a share of initial stakes | 0.0111% |
| Maximum drawdown / lowest net | $7,925 / −$810 |
| Longest stretch with net below zero | 1,793 rounds |
| Deposits beyond the starting $1,000 | 0 |
| Lowest cash after placing stakes, before settlement | $10 |
| Lowest balance after settlement | $190 |
| Indicative dispersion scale: empirical round standard deviation × √n | $8,852 |
The same track, the same decisions and the same participation, with five bet-sizing variants. V1 and K1 were simulated with full accounting; VERDE, ROZ and MOV were applied retrospectively. All use a constant $10 unit and start from $1,000; a $1,000 deposit is added only when a stake cannot be covered.
| Variant | Levels | R (USD) | C (USD) | Initial stakes | Max. drawdown | Lowest net | Deposits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V1 | 1× to 12× unit, rising with EV (edge per unit 0.20%) | +3,685.00 | -636.29 | $1,823,680 | $7,315 | -3,290 | 3 |
| K1 | 1× to 12× unit, rising with EV (edge per unit 0.10%) | +7,300.00 | +3,379.67 | $2,337,040 | $11,090 | -7,005 | 7 |
| VERDE | 1× / 2× / 8× unit | +4,645.00 | -1,658.66 | $1,718,680 | $6,440 | -1,050 | 1 |
| ROZ | 1× / 2× / 8×–16× unit (by EV above +1.1%) | +7,085.00 | +195.39 | $1,830,000 | $8,040 | -2,290 | 2 |
| MOV | 1× / 2× / 13× unit | +7,570.00 | +204.25 | $1,845,630 | $7,925 | -810 | 0 |
The same EV thresholds below +1.1% apply to VERDE, ROZ and MOV (no bet below −1.0%, 1× to +0.1%, 2× to +1.1%). V1 and K1 also bet nothing below −1.0% and 1× below +0.1%; above that they rise in steps of 1×, 2×, 3×, 4×, 6×, 8×, 10× and 12×.
| Dataset | One simulated track, 167 batches, seed 20261001, completed 4 October 2026 |
| Game rules | 8 decks, cut card at 208 of 416 (50% penetration), dealer stands on soft 17, no hole-card peek, double on any two cards, no double after split, up to 2 hands from a split, no resplitting aces, no hitting split aces, no surrender, blackjack pays 3:2 |
| Engine build | OOB-ENG-b0681ede84a3 |
| Simulator | OOB-K1-b564264c55fd |
| Journals (SHA-256, aggregate) | 1366b4a33008e9e1b695c7990e9700f1a1d5a8cb9ac361e4fdb00173f8c43d79 |
| Accounting check | Reference accounts rebuilt from the journals match the simulator balance on every wagered round. |