A controlled comparison of the first decision only, on initial two-card hands that are not pairs and not terminal. One side is a published static Basic Strategy chart. The other is the OOB engine, deciding from the exact remaining composition.
For each state, the static chart is consulted for its recommended action, and the OOB engine is asked for the expected value of every available action. The comparison is the difference between the EV of the action OOB selects and the EV of the action the chart recommends.
The reference is approved for this domain only. Pairs remain outside it: the source does not declare its split restrictions, and those apply directly to a split decision.
The sample was fixed before any sample expected value was computed. Excluded candidates were not replaced — replacing them would have selected the sample by the exclusion criterion.
813 + 187 + 0 = 1000. A pair has no place in this domain because split restrictions are undeclared by the source; a natural blackjack has no decision to compare.
| ΔEV statistic | All compared states | Deviations only |
|---|---|---|
| Denominator | 813 | 31 |
| Mean | +0.001073 | +0.028133 |
| Median | +0.000000 | +0.022584 |
| Maximum | +0.141518 | +0.141518 |
ΔEV = EV(action selected by OOB) − EV(action recommended by the chart). OOB selects the maximum, so the difference cannot be negative. All 31 deviations had a strictly higher EV; none had two different actions with exactly equal expected value.
Bins were fixed before the results were known.
| Interval | States | Share of 813 |
|---|---|---|
| exact 0 | 782 | 96.19% |
| (0, 0.0001) | 0 | 0.00% |
| [0.0001, 0.001) | 0 | 0.00% |
| [0.001, 0.005) | 3 | 0.37% |
| [0.005, 0.01) | 5 | 0.62% |
| [0.01, 0.02) | 5 | 0.62% |
| [0.02, 0.05) | 14 | 1.72% |
| [0.05, inf) | 4 | 0.49% |
| Chart → OOB | States | Share | Mean ΔEV |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIT → HIT | 392 | 48.22% | +0.000000 |
| STAND → STAND | 304 | 37.39% | +0.000000 |
| DOUBLE → DOUBLE | 86 | 10.58% | +0.000000 |
| HIT → STAND• | 16 | 1.97% | +0.021264 |
| HIT → DOUBLE• | 6 | 0.74% | +0.041763 |
| STAND → HIT• | 5 | 0.62% | +0.035053 |
| DOUBLE → HIT• | 3 | 0.37% | +0.031268 |
| STAND → DOUBLE• | 1 | 0.12% | +0.012250 |
• marks a deviation.
Prior exposure is the number of cards removed before the three visible cards were dealt. Both breakdowns are descriptive of this sample.
| Cards removed | States | Deviations | Rate | Mean ΔEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (0%) | 208 | 0 | 0.00% | +0.000000 |
| 104 (25%) | 207 | 8 | 3.86% | +0.000574 |
| 208 (50%) | 202 | 4 | 1.98% | +0.000436 |
| 312 (75%) | 196 | 19 | 9.69% | +0.003394 |
Zero deviations were observed in the 208 eligible states at 0% prior exposure.
| Interval | States | Deviations | Rate | Mean ΔEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TC < -2 | 113 | 6 | 5.31% | +0.002147 |
| -2 <= TC < -1 | 80 | 3 | 3.75% | +0.000612 |
| -1 <= TC < 0 | 147 | 3 | 2.04% | +0.000327 |
| 0 <= TC < 1 | 252 | 2 | 0.79% | +0.000061 |
| 1 <= TC < 2 | 84 | 4 | 4.76% | +0.001637 |
| TC >= 2 | 137 | 13 | 9.49% | +0.002771 |
Intervals were fixed before the results were known. These rates describe this sample; their shape does not establish a general or causal relationship.
Not selected for effect: these are simply the first of each kind in the fixed order of the sample.
This page is informative. It reports a run performed locally and does not provide access to the engine or the ability to execute the experiment.